Mar 13, 2020 - 6 min
US data suggests that being allowed to go out and spend is less important than feeling confident to do so. "So while useful at identifying turning points, the multitude of high-frequency indicators have very little predictive power. Bloomberg's survey of professional economic forecasters shows annualised gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2020 should come in somewhere between a 5 per cent contraction and 65 per cent growth — by far the biggest range I have ever seen." Megan Greene, writing in the Financial Times, analyses.